The big ? is. Does anyone want to be in the hands of CMS and co ? Like you said, you run into a cliff and everyone's knows it. Like with every case it sounds logical to use , because of the value , but in the end it's a decision we have no power ( and therefore downside/safety) over that. So will it be worth with all the struggle / volatility in the end ? Position Sizing obliviously matters. But how come this is your highest conviction stock ? 🤔
Spot on. I am betting on them seeing the benefits. The historical precedents were not that great compared to the benefits DefenCath will provide. This is a high risk bet. However, I am still convinced its undervalued given what I know.
Its not only dependent on the CMS. The MA plans also stand to benefit, so I think most likely case is we get a performance based deal.
I see thanks for clarifying :) I just expected something "less" risky here. Don't get me wrong , I liked the product , you shared some of your calculations for the worst case scenario to show there is downside , still personally i really don't like being in the hands of CMS. Its the same with mergers in specific areas where you are in the hands of the judge etc. Still thank you for sharing all these thoughts. I am really curious on how this will play out and what will be done for the patients.
Yes its hard to scenario-analyze something like this. I'll reiterate this- we're not entirely in the hands of the CMS. The private payers could also choose to pay for the drug if they see the cost benefit.
Really great analysis, thank you!
Thoughts on the recent capital raise?
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Great write up!
Thank you!
Another great writeup! Purchased a parcel last monday
The big ? is. Does anyone want to be in the hands of CMS and co ? Like you said, you run into a cliff and everyone's knows it. Like with every case it sounds logical to use , because of the value , but in the end it's a decision we have no power ( and therefore downside/safety) over that. So will it be worth with all the struggle / volatility in the end ? Position Sizing obliviously matters. But how come this is your highest conviction stock ? 🤔
Spot on. I am betting on them seeing the benefits. The historical precedents were not that great compared to the benefits DefenCath will provide. This is a high risk bet. However, I am still convinced its undervalued given what I know.
Its not only dependent on the CMS. The MA plans also stand to benefit, so I think most likely case is we get a performance based deal.
I see thanks for clarifying :) I just expected something "less" risky here. Don't get me wrong , I liked the product , you shared some of your calculations for the worst case scenario to show there is downside , still personally i really don't like being in the hands of CMS. Its the same with mergers in specific areas where you are in the hands of the judge etc. Still thank you for sharing all these thoughts. I am really curious on how this will play out and what will be done for the patients.
Yes its hard to scenario-analyze something like this. I'll reiterate this- we're not entirely in the hands of the CMS. The private payers could also choose to pay for the drug if they see the cost benefit.
Yes you are right, I simplified the logic here :) but yes
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